Hundreds of people in the UK may die from heat-related causes this weekend, researchers have warned, as a new real-time analysis estimates that high temperatures from Thursday to Sunday could claim as many as 570 lives.
Scientists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London published the findings on Saturday, using a model that combines mortality risk with weather forecasts to calculate potential deaths during the ongoing heatwave.
According to the study, there could have been 114 fatalities on Thursday and 152 on Friday. The toll is expected to rise over the weekend, with a projected 303 additional heat-related deaths. Saturday is forecast to be the deadliest day, with 266 deaths, nearly half of which could occur in London.
"Our study should be taken as a warning," said Malcolm Mistry, who took part in the study and teaches at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. "Exposure to temperatures in the high-20s or low-30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions."
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This is the first real-time assessment of heat-related excess deaths in 2025 by these institutions. The study uses decades of UK data to model health risks in 34,753 neighbourhoods across England and Wales. The researchers estimate a peak of 266 excess deaths on Saturday alone, when the heat is expected to be most severe. London is forecast to see the highest toll, with 129 excess deaths on that day.
The analysis arrives amid growing concern over the impact of extreme heat on public health. A separate study published on Friday found that the current heatwave was made around 10 times more likely — and 2°C to 4°C hotter — due to climate change.
Other European nations are also bracing for deadly conditions this weekend.
In Germany, the national weather service issued heat warnings for Sunday across much of the western and northern parts of the country, including the cities of Frankfurt, Cologne, Hamburg, and Berlin. The warnings are triggered when temperatures are predicted to reach levels that could endanger health.
France is facing similar threats. Meteo France warned of an early heatwave in parts of western France on Saturday, with temperatures forecast to rise to around 39°C. The eastern departments of Rhone and Isere are also affected. An orange-level heat alarm has been issued, which signals the need for “very vigilant” behaviour in light of “dangerous phenomena.”
Tracking the true number of heat-related deaths is complex, researchers say. While high temperatures exacerbate a range of existing health conditions, few death certificates list heat as a direct contributing cause.
“Many people who lose their lives in heatwaves rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death,” said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at Imperial College London.
The UK has been experiencing unusually intense and sustained heat this week, particularly for this time of year. Health authorities have issued repeated warnings about the risks to vulnerable populations.
Global warming has sharply raised the chances of early heatwaves. According to a separate study published Friday by researchers from Imperial College and the World Weather Attribution group, a heatwave like this would have occurred once every 50 years before the industrial era. Now, it is estimated to occur every five years due to climate change.
Scientists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London published the findings on Saturday, using a model that combines mortality risk with weather forecasts to calculate potential deaths during the ongoing heatwave.
According to the study, there could have been 114 fatalities on Thursday and 152 on Friday. The toll is expected to rise over the weekend, with a projected 303 additional heat-related deaths. Saturday is forecast to be the deadliest day, with 266 deaths, nearly half of which could occur in London.
"Our study should be taken as a warning," said Malcolm Mistry, who took part in the study and teaches at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. "Exposure to temperatures in the high-20s or low-30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions."
Also Read: Rajasthan in the US? Heat dome will test America's cool quotient
This is the first real-time assessment of heat-related excess deaths in 2025 by these institutions. The study uses decades of UK data to model health risks in 34,753 neighbourhoods across England and Wales. The researchers estimate a peak of 266 excess deaths on Saturday alone, when the heat is expected to be most severe. London is forecast to see the highest toll, with 129 excess deaths on that day.
The analysis arrives amid growing concern over the impact of extreme heat on public health. A separate study published on Friday found that the current heatwave was made around 10 times more likely — and 2°C to 4°C hotter — due to climate change.
Other European nations are also bracing for deadly conditions this weekend.
In Germany, the national weather service issued heat warnings for Sunday across much of the western and northern parts of the country, including the cities of Frankfurt, Cologne, Hamburg, and Berlin. The warnings are triggered when temperatures are predicted to reach levels that could endanger health.
France is facing similar threats. Meteo France warned of an early heatwave in parts of western France on Saturday, with temperatures forecast to rise to around 39°C. The eastern departments of Rhone and Isere are also affected. An orange-level heat alarm has been issued, which signals the need for “very vigilant” behaviour in light of “dangerous phenomena.”
Tracking the true number of heat-related deaths is complex, researchers say. While high temperatures exacerbate a range of existing health conditions, few death certificates list heat as a direct contributing cause.
“Many people who lose their lives in heatwaves rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death,” said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at Imperial College London.
The UK has been experiencing unusually intense and sustained heat this week, particularly for this time of year. Health authorities have issued repeated warnings about the risks to vulnerable populations.
Global warming has sharply raised the chances of early heatwaves. According to a separate study published Friday by researchers from Imperial College and the World Weather Attribution group, a heatwave like this would have occurred once every 50 years before the industrial era. Now, it is estimated to occur every five years due to climate change.
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