Editorial: The Return Of The Maverick In The White House

So Trump it is. Donald J Trump. In democracies, and there are no perfect democracies anywhere, you have to respect the popular will. Not only nearly half the Americans who did not vote for him, but the world at large has to accept him as the leader of the most powerful nation in the world. It is the most consequential elective post in the world by some distance, America still being the biggest economic and military power in the world. For continuing stability and a predictable world order Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was widely reckoned to be better, but the white, inward looking Americans feeling the economic pinch put their trust in the big-talking real estate tycoon. For the next four years, the world will have to do business with someone for whom everything is transactional. Old verities and certitudes of a global security super structure will now have to pass the Trumpian test. The maverick tenant of the White House for the next four years, hopefully, will not prove to be the proverbial bull in the china shop, pelting the hoary institutions at home and abroad with his penny-counting attitude to domestic and international policy-making. And thus provide succor to the enemies of the democratic world. Whether Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will revel in Trump’s win ought to be clear in the coming weeks and months. Two on-going wars will feel the impact immediately. Trump threatens to choke off military and economic aid to Ukraine and seems reconciled to Russian occupation of whatever enemy land its forces had occupied in the more than two year old aggression. Unlike Biden, Trump may not be willing to write out periodic cheques for defending Ukraine against Putin’s imperial ambitions. If that brings the threat of Russia closer to the European border, so be it. Trump is not committed to defend the post-war defence structures. His first term had nudged the NATO members to try and bolster their own militaries; his second may persuade them to organise their own security arrangements without overly relying on American guarantees. How the war in Ukraine pans out with Trump in the White House will crucially influence the security stance of the European nations hitherto protected by the US-led NATO umbrella. While there is a good deal of scepticism concerning the Ukraine war, Israel’s continuing onslaught in Gaza and Lebanon is bound to receive further fillip when hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu finds a soul-mate in Trump. The latter is on record saying that he would support Netanyahu to crush the last vestiges of Palestinian resistance, be it in Gaza or Lebanon, or even further afield, in Iran. West Asia is likely to experience Trumpian meddling, with special attention on Iran. Whether Trump’s return will hasten Iran’s nuclear bomb, thus, in turn, allowing the Saudis and other Islamic nations, to develop nukes of their own cannot be ruled out. But West Asia may have become a little more troubled with Trump’s return. Of course, a key pillar of Trump’s approach in the economic sphere concerns stiff tariffs on imports. He had imposed them in his first term, which Biden in fact had improved upon.

Regardless of their questionable economic benefits, tariffs on Chinese imports are popular with Trump’s base. In this regard, some exports from India too might attract Trump’s attention, but given his transactional nature there may be scope for the two countries to find a modus vivendi for smoothening trade relations. Unlike China, India poses no security or economic challenge to continuing American hegemony. Indeed, the rising threat from China may further enforce the American resolve to keep it in its corner in the global security order. On the campaign trail Trump acknowledged India as a key ally in the emerging security system, while he paid fulsome tribute to Indian-Americans for their significant contribution to the American economy. Also, Trump is unlikely to be swayed by a group of hyper-active Americans pretending to be conscience-keepers of the world, periodically pinpricking others on human rights and religious freedoms – while being fully blind to grave injustices under their noses.

Meanwhile, Democrats will have a huge task at hand rebuilding the party from scratch and wooing back its traditional blue-collar supporters, Hispanics and college-educated voters. The party hasn’t had a charismatic leader since Barack Obama. The circumstances in which Harris found herself challenging Trump, and her subsequent loss to him is unlikely to propel her into a significant role in the Democratic Party. It needs fresh blood. The fact that Republicans now control both the Senate and the House of Representatives would allow Trump a free hand to carve the presidency in his own image. Of course, Trump over-promised and may find it hard to deport tens of thousands of illegals, bomb Mexico or build an impregnable wall to keep out immigrants. Yet, the fact that he will inherit a sound economy, growing at over two percent, low inflation and growing job numbers ought to persuade him not to tinker too much with punitive tariffs which eventually will harm the American economy only. Given a record high deficit, he should resist cutting corporate taxes, something he did in his first term without the benefits tricking down to the common people. The fact that he will have the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, as his chief mentor ought not to cause him to make the shaping of economic and security policy hostage to his quicksilver ways. In sum, not only America but the world has become an interesting place, thanks to the maverick nature of the untraditional occupant of the White House for the next four years. India can rejoice in Trump’s victory, especially with the president-elect openly acknowledging PM Modi as a friend.