Will BJP's Haryana Win Loom Over Maharashtra And Jharkhand?

Just weeks after the elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand next month will once again witness another round of intense political battle between two main alliances — NDA and I.N.D.I.A. The two Assembly elections, besides by-polls in three Lok Sabha constituencies and 48 Assembly segments across several states, will test the mettle of the BJP and the Congress and their respective regional alliance parties. The outcome of the Assembly election in Haryana, where the BJP won an unexpected victory while the Congress also improved its vote share and seat tally over its 2019 performance, increases the importance of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand polls for NDA and I.N.D.I.A.

Perceptibly, the BJP’s confidence-boosting victory in Haryana, despite the odds of two-term anti-incumbency and internal challenges, has not only redefined the electoral narrative for the BJP, it has also made it imperative for the I.N.D.I.A bloc to perform well in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. For months since the Lok Sabha election results, the consensus among political observers was that the BJP’s electoral dominance was waning — more so because it failed to meet its 400-seat target, did not get the Parliamentary majority on its own and had to rely on allies like the TDP and JD(U) to form the government at the Centre.

There are no two views that the BJP’s popularity has come down after a decade in power at the Centre and in many states. The pull that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persona had on voters is also believed to be ebbing — he did not campaign aggressively in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir like the way he has often done in state elections over the past decade. However, the Haryana win has disrupted that perception for now, which can be seen as a sign of the BJP’s ability to surprise and win against the odds and regain momentum. Even if one is tempted to read this as a retracement of BJP’s falling popularity graph, it would be wrong to say that the BJP is not capable of consolidating on its gains in Haryana.

Nevertheless, Haryana may not be a strong signal of change in the direction of the larger trend in BJP’s electoral fortunes. With over 36% all-India vote share, obviously helped by the Modi factor, it is foolish to expect the BJP’s popularity to go down overnight. Even with a falling graph, it is still capable of giving a formidable fight to the Congress-led alliances in state elections. Haryana is a good example. However, after its less-than-expected performance in the general election, a lot of things have changed for the BJP. The Congress is now better placed to set narratives and counter the BJP, both ideologically and electorally, even if it means losing a tight contest, as it happened in Haryana where the Congress’ over-reliance on its old guard proved fatal.

One of the key takeaways of the Haryana victory is the BJP’s success in managing caste equations and countering the Congress’s populist ‘freebies’ strategy, which is also expected to play a crucial role in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Another takeaway is that the BJP is not a spent force and the Congress — despite Rahul Gandhi’s bolstered leadership and the party’s electoral narrative of freebies, caste census and more caste quotas, which helped the party improve its seats from 52 to 99 in the 2024 general election — is still not a good enough counter to the BJP’s development plus Hindutva agenda. But then poll results in just one state may not be the true indicator in the larger context of ground realities and poll complexities in other states. However, after its Haryana loss, the Congress is under pressure to restore its record against the BJP and safeguard its position within the I.N.D.I.A bloc as the lead horse.

Maharashtra is a complex state comprising five regions: each region stressed along different markers of diversity and fault lines of caste, class, religion, tribe, income, urban-rural and local-migrant divides. Since the 2019 Assembly election, the political landscape of Maharashtra has been completely reshaped. Politically it is a state in chaos: two Shiv Senas and two Nationalist Congress parties, with one faction each in alliance with the BJP and the Congress. Once a land of social reforms and ideologies, Maharashtra today is a land of political opportunism, ambitions and alliances of convenience, leaving the voter confused and polarised. Political uncertainty and economic anxiety capture the state’s decline from the powerhouse of India’s financial capital to a lowly 11th on per capita income.

Voting is partly emotional; which party or alliance will get voter’s support will depend on a host of issues — loyalty, ideological allegiance, economic worries, identity, regional disparities, freebies and promises of more giveaways. The Mahayuti government led by Eknath Shinde has doubled down on its welfare schemes targeting different demographics — women and unemployed youth — with the announcement of toll exemptions for light motor vehicles in Mumbai and pushing for an increase in the non-creamy layer income ceiling from Rs 8 lakh to Rs 15 lakh. The government is hoping to turn the welfare schemes and caste-based electoral strategies into political capital.

But not everyone is convinced that the freebies will translate into votes, given the political churn the state has gone through and the mounting frustration over Maratha and OBC reservations. Whether the reservation issue will overwhelm temporary cash transfer remains to be seen, but political observers believe that the ruling alliance faces the challenge of balancing between demands for reservation and pushing forward its welfare agenda. Quite optimistic after the Lok Sabha results — Maha Vikas Aghadi won 29 of 48 seats in the state — Opposition leaders are hoping that their narrative of caste census, reservations, and promise of welfare schemes like the ones launched in Karnataka and Telangana by the Congress government will triumph over the Mahayuti’s welfare programmes.

Like the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led ruling alliance in Jharkhand is banking on women voters for another term. In Jharkhand, the BJP campaign is built on corruption allegations against Chief Minister Hemant Soren and demographic shift which the party attributes to alleged migration of people from Bangladesh. Soren is dependent on tribal consolidation but that alone may not be enough; nearly three-fourths of the state’s population is non-tribal and the BJP’s effort is to consolidate the Hindus among them. A consolidation of the OBCs, a strategy that worked for the BJP in Haryana, is what the party is hoping for in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. The Congress and its allies, on the other hand, are dependent on the support of Marathas and tribespeople in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, respectively. Tight contests are expected in both the states and it may not be an easy walkover for any alliance.

The writer is a senior independent Mumbai-based journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule