Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch must be horrified with this Reform UK win

Pollster Ipsos has found Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is winning the favourability race against his rivals, while his party is trusted more on almost every major issue. The latest horror data for Labour and the Tories - adding yet more pressure on Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch - comes as pollster Find Out Now put the Greens in second place in its latest poll, narrowly ahead of both old establishment parties. Back to Ipsos, that pollster found 33% of respondents supported Farage becoming PM compared to Sir Keir, while 39% say they prefer Reform to win versus 36% for Labour.

In terms of favourability, this breaks down as 37% for Reform, and just 22% for the Conservatives and Labour. Farage meanwhile has a lead over all other would-be Prime Ministers, including Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. In more good news for Farage, his party outperforms all others on major issues - from tax to public services - although predictably doing best on the issue of immigration, where 45% of folks say Reform has a good plan.

Is it all good news for Farage? Well 45% of folks are still unfavourable to the Reform leader. While better than the unfavourability rating for the PM, this remains slightly worse than the unfavourability rating for Badenoch, and much worse than ratings for Andy Burnham, or the Green and Lib Dem leaders.

This is broadly mirrored in unfavourability ratings for all parties, although on that metric the Tories fare worse than Reform. That said, voters seem to think Farage and co get the balance right between a spendthrift Labour and skinflint Tories.

The risks for Reform look the same as before. Tactical voting - as we saw in the recent Caerphilly by-election - could deprive Reform of outright victory. Meanwhile, a change of leader at the top of Labour or the Tories could weaken Reform's lead, at least short-term.

While internal disputes have so far not harmed Reform there is always a chance that a major party bust-up or faux pas could unwind all the gains made this year. Farage knows these risks all too well.

Finally, Reform's instinctive admiration for a small state and low tax has to manage the broad church backing it: a coalition which wants fewer immigrants but which also wants higher taxes on the rich!

At some point that circle needs squaring. We are a long way off any national election but at some point Reform also needs to say something big on foreign affairs and defence. Britain remains a world power and global war drawing in Australia and the US is hardly a remote possibility at the decade's end.

Nonetheless this data is broadly great news for Reform. The recent Senedd by-election aside, Reform remains on course for big gains in May's local elections, notwithstanding Labour cancelling them last minute. Expect to see Reform Mayors elected in Norfolk and Suffolk, and Essex, mirroring a similar mayoral victory in Lincolnshire.

2026 should - like 2025 - be Reform's year, but no one will underestimate the scale of the task at hand or the scrutiny to come.