When Starmer's so-called one in, one out deal was first unveiled, I laughed. The idea of returning just 50 migrants a week already seemed pathetically weak. But the reality has turned out to be far worse. The much-quoted 6% target - the share of arrivals supposedly being sent back to France - now looks like wishful thinking. In truth, only 0.26% of illegal migrants who have arrived since the scheme began have actually been returned. Just 26 people.
Since the deal launched on August 6, 10,040 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats. In the two weeks alone, nearly 2,000 more have arrived. To call the policy ineffective and weak would be generous - it's actively making the situation worse. And migrants in France can see what's happening. They know that right now, they have a 99.74% chance of staying in Britain if they cross, so why not?

Boat crossings are now 10,000 higher than they were at this time last year, yet, astonishingly, Shabana Mahmood decided to boast about the returns figure, saying: "We've returned 26 through our historic agreement with France. With flights to France now underway and ramping up, we are sending out a clear message: if you come here illegally, you face being detained and removed, so think twice before making that journey."
Historic? Perhaps, but not in the way she means. And as for "ramping up"? Twenty-six returns in seven weeks is hardly ramping; it's barely a nudge.
If the high probability of staying isn't enough to further tempt the illegals to cross, then they only have to go on X and see the videos of the accommodation they may get.
New footage from a block of 98 brand new luxury apartments in Chelmsford, Essex, is quite literally waiting for them.
QR codes are pinned to the walls, saying "Scan here for a GP appointment" (because the 8am rush only applies to taxpaying Brits), and a regular cleaning service is reportedly available as well.
My advice to you, if you are a struggling, hardworking Brit on the waitlist to get a home, working tirelessly to feed your children or pay your bills... don't bother. Just pop over to Calais, chuck your passport in the sea and come back on a dinghy.
At least until your identity is verified, you can live the life of Riley for a few months.
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