'Chance gone up significantly': US gathers intel on Israel preparing military strike on Iran nuclear sites

Fresh US intelligence suggests Israel's preparation for potential military action against Iranian nuclear installations, as reported by CNN, citing several US officials on Tuesday (local time). This development occurs while the Trump administration maintains its diplomatic engagement with Tehran.

A source informed CNN, "The chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly," especially if Washington cannot secure an agreement to restrict Iran's uranium enrichment programme.

Although Israel has yet to make a final decision, officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN that the likelihood of a strike has grown significantly in recent months. They emphasized that Israel’s course of action will largely depend on the outcome of ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

The US assessment reportedly draws from both intercepted Israeli communications and observable military preparations, including the repositioning of aerial munitions and the completion of a major Israeli air exercise.

However, US officials cautioned that these developments could also be part of a calculated effort by Israel to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran, rather than an indication of imminent military action.

Any Israeli strike would represent a sharp departure from Trump’s current diplomatic strategy and could ignite a broader conflict in the already unstable Middle East. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, the US has sought to prevent further escalation in the region.

While Trump has threatened military action if talks with Iran break down, he has maintained a public commitment to diplomacy—for now. It was reported that in March, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, setting a 60-day deadline to finalize a deal. That deadline has passed, and it has now been over five weeks since talks began.

Meanwhile, a senior Western diplomat told that Trump recently signaled he would allow only a few more weeks for negotiations to succeed before turning to military options.

Israel finds itself at a strategic crossroads. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to oppose a US-Iran deal he sees as insufficiently robust, while also striving to maintain Israel’s vital alliance with Washington.